Science Plan for a former joint project of the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) and International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP)

For more details contact Owen Gaffney at

Executive Summary

Land-use and land-cover change is significant to a range of themes and issues central to the study of global environmental change. The alterations it effects in the surface of the earth hold major implications for sustainable development and livelihood systems and also contribute to changes in the biogeochemical cycles of the earth, affecting the atmospheric levels of greenhouse and other trace gases. Understanding the nature of land-use/ cover change and its impacts requires the joint efforts of natural and social science because of the expertise of each in certain key faces of the topic.

The global environmental change community has increasingly recognised the significance of land-use and land—cover change and the need for an interdisciplinary research approach to the subject. This recognition prompted the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme (HDP) to explore the possibility of a co-operative research project/ programme with the general goal of improving our basic understanding of the dynamics of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change (LUCC) globally, with a focus on improving our ability to model and project such change. The two programmes commissioned a Core Project Planning Committee/ Research Programme Planning Committee') for Land-Use and Land—Cover Change (CPPC/RPPC LUCC) to create a science/ research plan2’ for a jointly sponsored LUCC core project/ research programme.

This report constitutes the LUCC science/ research plan as developed by the CPPC/RPPC in cooperation with a larger research community through several workshops and meetings. Section 1 introduces the subject and its linkages with other global change research programmes and projects. Section 2 outlines the CPFC/RPPC LUCC's mandate from the IGBP and HDP. Section 3 describes the LUCC problem and the main themes and issues involved in is study. Section 4 is an overview of the science/ research plan, while Sections 5-7 detail the three main research foci, and Sections 8-9 are the two integrating activities of the plan.

The plan rests on the following observations:

  • That a truly international and interdisciplinary LUCC core project/ research programme is possible;

• That a sufficiently large cadre of scientists and social scientists exists worldwide to undertake the effort now;

• That LUCC-related projects and programmes are emerging in various segments of the global change research community, many of them in anticipation, but independent, of an IGBP-I-IDP core project/research programme; and

• That these various initiatives are, individually and in the aggregate, insufficient for the global nature of the problem, which requires the kind of integration and interdisciplinary effort that an lGBP-lHDP core project/ research programme can provide.

The plan is guided by five overarching questions, specifically:

l. How has land cover been changed by human use over the last 300 years?

2. What are the major human causes of land—use change in different geographical and historical contexts?

3. How will changes in land use affect land cover in the next 50-100 years?

4. l-low do immediate human and biophysical dynamics affect the sustainability of specific types of land uses?

5. How might changes in climate and global biogeochemistry affect both land-use and land-cover, and vice versa?

Because the study and analysis of research addressed by LUCC covers a new interdisciplinary area, and because it is recognised that considerable integration of LUCC research with that of other Core Projects will be necessary, these goals will only be met through close collaboration with other Core Projects.

The plan calls for a set of integrative research foci and activities linking the various components of the LUCC research community in an effort to improve understanding of:

(i) the driving forces (exogenous variables) of land use as they operate through the land manager;

(ii) the land-cover implications of land use;

(iii) the spatial and temporal variability in land-use/ cover dynamics; and

(iv) regional and global models and projections of land-use/ cover change.

These questions are addressed by three research foci:

Focus l Land-Use Dynamics, is a comparative case study approach aimed at improving our understanding of the variation in the nature—society dynamics of land management, thereby facilitating a sophisticated approach to regional and global modelling. It aims to identify and analyse a series of regional situations that represent the major clusters of LUCC dynamics worldwide, including the dynamic forces of these dynamics, thus permitting spatial and temporal fine—tuning of the overall modelling effort as well as providing the local, and, with Focus 2, regional understanding that is vital for climate impact and sustainability research.

Focus 2 Land-Cover Dynamics, involves regional assessments of land-cover change as determined from direct observation (e.g., satellite imagery and field studies) and models built from these observations. lt seeks to provide spatial specificity in the land-cover outcomes associated with the management practices of particular land uses. In doing so, it links the underlying driving forces and land uses found in the case studies of Focus `l to land-cover changes through management or proximate activities. It also extends and specifies the spatial coverage of particular LUCC dynamics, while providing models of change in this coverage.

Focus 3 Regional and Global Models, aims to improve upon existing models and build new ones that provide a basis for projecting land-use changes based on changes in the underlying causes or driving forces. These models will incorporate the regional and situational sensitivity provided from Foci 1 and 2 to generate more spatially explicit outcomes from regional and global models. Focus 3 will develop a model structure able to integrate a variety of approaches while strengthening agricultural sector models by including water, urban, biophysical, and other such linkages, and coupling these models to forest/ timber and livestock sector models.

Two integrating activities cross-cut these three research foci:

Integrating Activity 1 Data and Classification, analyses data availability and quality and devises a classification structure suitable for the various needs of the three research foci. lt also identifies, and, if needed, develops the major datasets and measures important for LUCC studies.

Integrating Activity 2 Scalar Dynamics, recognises that the different scales at which LUCC processes operate, and the different scales at which they are analysed, pose major impediments to developing a comprehensive understanding of LUCC. This activity seeks to identify the major rules and lessons that should guide LUCC efforts in this regard, thus improving the integration of the three foci.

The LUCC research activities will contribute to the following needs of the global environmental change communities:

• Methodological advancement in the design and implementation of LUCC case studies and case study protocols, the means to interpolate and extrapolate from LUCC sample data across space and time scales, and the structure and functioning of integrated LUCC models;

• Analytical advancement in a suite of integrated LUCC models ranging from the household and farm to the globe;

• In cooperation with other projects and programmes, LUCC data development and format design; and

• Empirically—derived inventories of geographically specific land—use/ cover changes and analytically-derived projections thereof across specific time scales.

The understanding gained from the results of a LUCC project/ programme will be of use to a wide range of researchers, policy planners, and other decision makers requiring improved means of projecting land-use/ cover change in terms of its implications for (i) global environmental change, (ii) local—to regional sustainability issues, and (iii) the assessment of responses to local and environmental change.

Authors

Turner, B.L., Skole, D., Sanderson, S., Fischer, G., Fresco, L. and Leemans, R.

Reference

Turner, B.L., Skole, D., Sanderson, S., Fischer, G., Fresco, L. and Leemans, R. 1995. Land-Use and Land-cover change Science/Research Plan.  Joint publication of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (Report No.  35) and the Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change Programme (Report No. 7). Stockholm: Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences.

Type

Science Plan

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